'Pocketbook concerns' top priority for Hispanic voters

The largest Hispanic voter research project that Democratic pollster Andrew Myers has ever heard of included 17 focus groups and nearly 1,800 separate interviews in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona.

All that work, and the result is this: The top concerns of Hispanics look pretty much like the top concerns of everyone else.

"Pocketbook concerns dominate," said Myers, of Myers Research in Springfield, Va., which worked on Project New West: Hispanic Voters in the New Western Battleground.

That means the rising cost of gas is a very serious concern for 93 percent of those interviewed, and gay marriage is a very serious concern for only 32 percent.

Or, as one respondent told Myers' group, "I would support gay marriage if it would fill my tank with gas so I could get to work."

Social issues such as gay marriage, abortion and illegal immigration have moved to the back burner, Myers said in a press conference with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson during this week's Democratic National Convention.

"When we asked in an open- ended exercise, what is the most important issue in deciding your vote for president, a full majority, 55 percent, said the economy, jobs - everything is clustered in that area," Myers said.

"That was followed by the war in Iraq, which is as much an economic issue in these voters' minds because we're spending $2 billion a week there rather than focusing on our needs at home."

Illegal immigration was a deciding issue for one in four of those interviewed, Myers noted, and only 35 percent listed it as a serious concern. "When they express concerns about illegal immigration," he said, "it is far more about the Republican rhetoric, which has damaged them deeply."

The research was done in July and August. The poll of likely Hispanic voters in the four states has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, Myers said.

What Hispanics care about has been a hot topic in DNC meetings this week, and it is hard to overstate the perceived importance of the Hispanic vote. On Monday, Sen. Hillary Clinton spoke at the Hispanic delegate caucus and, on Wednesday, Michelle Obama appeared before the group.

"There is nothing that will be easy about the next few months," Michelle Obama said. "That's why you all are so important."

Myers' poll shows Barack Obama leading likely rival John McCain by nearly 2-to-1 among Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

So why the heavy push? Simple, Myers said, Hispanic voter registration rates and voter participation rates are far lower than those of Anglos and blacks.

In 2004, 58 percent of Hispanics ages 18 and older were registered to vote, 11 percentage points below blacks and 17 points below whites, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

And in the 2006 election in Colorado, a state with a Hispanic population of about 20 percent, only 7 percent turned out to vote, exit polling showed. Low turnouts also were seen in Nevada and Arizona.

Some Hispanic leaders, including Richardson, have said the Obama campaign is not doing enough to court the Hispanic vote.

"He needs to visit more, he needs to campaign more in the West," Richardson said this week. "He needs to put more resources in the West, more volunteers, more offices."

Obama's deputy Latino vote director agreed that the Hispanic outreach effort may have started a little late. READ MORE

By Nancy Mitchell
Rocky Mountain News

State May Be Getting A Touch Blue

TAMPA - Is Florida turning blue? Or just slightly bluish? Or even just a less reddish shade of purple?

Florida Democrats contend voter registration figures and recent election results show signs of a shift in the politics of a state dominated for more than a decade by Republicans.

The signs aren't overwhelming - a small but significant uptick in numbers of Democratic voters; a partisan shift in Hispanic voter registration; urban counties including Pinellas turning somewhat more Democratic.

But in a state with a Republican governor and big GOP majorities in the state House, state Senate, elected Cabinet and congressional delegation, any success for Democrats stands out. Those signals are being heard more loudly after the 2006 election, when Democrats made electoral gains in Florida for the first time in more than a decade.

"There could be a strong tide," is the optimistic view of Mark Bubriski, a former spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party who is working for the Barack Obama campaign. "But it's the type of change that doesn't happen overnight."

Baloney, respond the Republicans.

Republicans dominate government in Florida even though they have long trailed Democrats in numbers of registered voters, said state party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle. She noted that Gov. Charlie Crist won in 2006 by 400,000 votes, even though Republicans had 400,000 fewer voters on the rolls than Democrats. "All that matters is what happens on Election Day, and we've shown time and again that Republicans turn out voters at the polls, even when we're down in registration numbers."

University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, an expert on demographic trends in politics, thinks the changes are real - "an example of the cyclical nature of politics," she said. MacManus said the change in registration figures comes partly from younger voters, who are becoming more likely to register Democratic and less likely to register no-party or in minor parties.

"Some of it's driven by the excitement of the primary - the Obama-Hillary race has sped up that process," she said. MacManus said the changes aren't big enough to mean Democrats are sure to win Florida in 2008, "but at least show a party that's on the upswing, not the downswing."

Reagan, Retirees Drove GOP Gains

For Florida Democrats, any glimmer of hope would be welcome. For more than a decade, they've predicted and hoped for a resurgence in every Florida election, only to see Republicans make gains. At one time, Florida was part of the Democratic-dominated Solid South. As late as the mid-1960s, there were four registered Democrats in Florida for every Republican.

GOP-oriented Midwestern retirees and the popularity of Ronald Reagan erased that advantage in the 1970s and '80s. In 1994, Democrats slipped below 50 percent of registered Florida voters, although they remain Florida's largest party. Between 1994 and 1998, Republicans won their first state Legislature majorities in modern history, then their first majority in the state's elected Cabinet, along with the governor's mansion, taking control of state government. They used that power to redraw legislative and congressional district lines to their advantage. With the favorable districts, they reached majorities of about 2-1 in the Legislature and Florida's congressional delegation early in this decade.

For Democrats, it has been an era of unrelieved gloom. The party couldn't raise money or recruit candidates. In 2002, there were more Libertarians than Democrats on the ballot for state House seats. No Democratic presidential candidate has received Florida's electoral votes since 1996, and in three straight elections - 2000, 2002 and 2004 - only one Democrat, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, managed to win a statewide race.

That era is ending, Democrats say. In 2006, the party made its first electoral gains, small but significant, since 1994. For the first time since 1998, a Democratic candidate who didn't already hold a statewide office won one when Alex Sink of Tampa became state chief financial officer. Democrats also took seven previously Republican state House seats, then added two more in special elections afterward; and won two previously Republican congressional seats. They now hold 14 of the 26 state Senate seats, 43 of 120 state House seats, and nine of the 25 congressional seats. Bad as those numbers are for the Democrats, they are still an improvement.

Democrats Add Voters To Rolls

Meanwhile, voter figures have shown signs of Democratic movement since 2006. For more than a decade, both major parties have declined gradually but steadily in their share of the electorate, as more voters registered no-party or in minor parties. Since the 2006 general election, while Republicans continued that decline, Democrats registered an uptick, from 40.4 percent to 41.2 percent - the first time since at least 1994 that either party hasn't declined in its percentage of total registered voters. As of the end of May, the most recent figures available on the state Division of Elections' Web site, 41.2 percent of Florida voters are Democrats, 37.2 percent are Republicans and 21.6 percent are minor party or no-party.

Steve Schale, a former state Democratic Party strategist who now works for the Obama campaign in Florida, listed other signs:

•In the two years the state has been keeping separate figures on Hispanic voters, Democrats have come from behind to lead Republicans, with 35.5 percent of the state's 1.18 million Hispanic voters, to 35.2 percent. Hispanics are the nation's and Florida's fastest-growing ethnic group.

•The percentage of Democrats is increasing in most of the state's large, urban counties. Democrats recently surpassed Republicans for the first time in Pinellas County, the birthplace of Florida's Republican Party.

•Out of Florida's 120 state House districts, 77 have become more Democratic since 2002, Schale said.

This year, with an unpopular Republican president leaving office, "Our brand is looking better than theirs," he said.

Changes May Be Misleading, GOP Says

Again, Republicans questioned the significance of such figures. Small changes in voter figures can be misleading, they noted, because of purges, when county officials remove inactive voters from the rolls. Registration figures can also be questionable because of Florida's closed primaries, in which only voters registered in a party can participate. Voters often register in a party they don't agree with, simply to be able to vote in the primary.

That has long been the case in North Florida, for example, where Democrats dominate in registered voters, but almost never win statewide or presidential elections.

MacManus agreed that the changes are too small to allow predictions of Democratic wins in Florida in 2008, but she said they could have a long-term effect, particularly if the young people registering Democratic because of Obama see their candidate win. "The first time somebody votes, if their candidate does well, they're likely to stay with that party for a long time," she said.

By WILLIAM MARCH
The Tampa Tribune

Democrats tout shift in Hispanic voting

Democrats are touting their expanding hold on Hispanic voters in Florida, but GOP officials say they will turn Hispanic voters out in force in 2008.

BY BETH REINHARD - Miami Herald - Hispanic voters registered as Democrats have overtaken Hispanic Republicans in Florida, signaling a trend that, if it continues, could have far-reaching implications for the 2008 election and U.S. foreign policy.

Until now, the politically influential, mostly Republican Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade made Florida the only state in the country where, among Hispanics, Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

April voter registration statistics show 418,339 Hispanic Democrats statewide, compared to 415,068 Hispanic Republicans and 345,108 registered with neither party, according to a Florida Democratic Party analysis of state data. The state provides registration data sorted by party and race to the public only in the month before an election.

The growth among Hispanic Democrats is striking. Since January 2006, when the state began identifying voters as Hispanic, Democratic registration has increased 18 percent. Hispanic Republicans grew by only 2 percent, while Hispanic voters choosing neither party are up 14 percent. READ MORE

The trend reflects a fierce competition between the two major parties for the Hispanic vote, which could represent as much as 15 percent of the electorate in 2008. Florida Democrats are touting their expanding influence in the Hispanic community, while GOP officials say their registration and get-out-the-vote drives will be more aggressive than ever this year.

''There are a few states where the Latino vote is going to be critical -- definitely Florida, as well as Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada -- and those are going to be battleground states in the national scope,'' said Lindsay Daniels, a strategist at the National Council of La Raza, a nonpartisan Hispanic advocacy group.

Both demographic and political shifts are fueling the increase in Hispanic Democrats in Florida.

GENERATIONAL SHIFT

Demographically, the voter registration statistics are the latest sign that immigration from Latin America and younger generations of Cuban Americans are diluting the influence of the older Cuban-American community. Those dedicated voters heavily favored Republican candidates and a hard-line policy toward Cuba. READ MORE

Non-citizens Voting in Elections

The article below brings up an interesting debate. This has nothing to do with the SOE office nor any other office in the state or country....it has to do with a process. How could this happen? We have the "no match law" that has been challenged, yet a legal immigrant (with a Visa) can get a driver's license & social security card & that's pretty much all you need to register to vote. Now, someone may answer this for me (because I have not sat down to research this yet)....how indepth does the matching go? Do they just double check that the social security & driver's license match and that it is accurate and not if it is a number that belongs to a felon or immigrant? Does someone feel like doing some lobbying or advocacy here?
-Angelette Aviles-

Non-citizens Voting in Elections
By: Mike Deeson
Tampa Bay News 10

Tampa, Florida -- Voting is a precious American right and Hillsborough supervisor of elections Buddy Johnson has made a big push to register voters especially in the schools.

Michael Carracedo was in a classroom in his high school and he says, "They came in and said, 'How many of you guys are 18?' The majority of the class raised their hand, and I raised my hand"

Carracedo says he was eager to exercise his right to vote. He filled out the application, turned it and one week later he got his voter's card. It enabled Carracedo to vote in the gubernatorial election and he says he was thrilled until he came to the immigration office to apply for citizenship.

The immigration officer told Carracedo he could be deported for voting.

"I did not know that you have to be an American citizen to register to vote," Carracedo says.

Jennifer Marks of the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections office says, "Over the past three years the office has elicited 12,000 registrations and this is the first I've heard of this happening through the school program."

While Marks can't recall any problem like this, under law it can't require anyone who wants to register to prove they are an American citizen. That's why the office readily admits if an illegal alien wants to register and vote, there's really nothing they can do about it.

"It's absolutely conceivable that could happen," Marks says.

Even though Carracedo did sign a form saying he was an American citizen, he says he didn't pay attention to the form.

"I barely looked at it," he says. "I filled out the information and signed at the bottom. Like at any other form, there was small print at the bottom and I didn't read it. Obviously it was my mistake not reading it."

Marks says, "Ultimately you have to trust the word of the person who signs the form and when they sign an oath, they have ultimate responsibility."

But that means someone who wanted to stack the system with illegal voters could influence a close race and no one would ever know.