'Pocketbook concerns' top priority for Hispanic voters

The largest Hispanic voter research project that Democratic pollster Andrew Myers has ever heard of included 17 focus groups and nearly 1,800 separate interviews in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona.

All that work, and the result is this: The top concerns of Hispanics look pretty much like the top concerns of everyone else.

"Pocketbook concerns dominate," said Myers, of Myers Research in Springfield, Va., which worked on Project New West: Hispanic Voters in the New Western Battleground.

That means the rising cost of gas is a very serious concern for 93 percent of those interviewed, and gay marriage is a very serious concern for only 32 percent.

Or, as one respondent told Myers' group, "I would support gay marriage if it would fill my tank with gas so I could get to work."

Social issues such as gay marriage, abortion and illegal immigration have moved to the back burner, Myers said in a press conference with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson during this week's Democratic National Convention.

"When we asked in an open- ended exercise, what is the most important issue in deciding your vote for president, a full majority, 55 percent, said the economy, jobs - everything is clustered in that area," Myers said.

"That was followed by the war in Iraq, which is as much an economic issue in these voters' minds because we're spending $2 billion a week there rather than focusing on our needs at home."

Illegal immigration was a deciding issue for one in four of those interviewed, Myers noted, and only 35 percent listed it as a serious concern. "When they express concerns about illegal immigration," he said, "it is far more about the Republican rhetoric, which has damaged them deeply."

The research was done in July and August. The poll of likely Hispanic voters in the four states has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, Myers said.

What Hispanics care about has been a hot topic in DNC meetings this week, and it is hard to overstate the perceived importance of the Hispanic vote. On Monday, Sen. Hillary Clinton spoke at the Hispanic delegate caucus and, on Wednesday, Michelle Obama appeared before the group.

"There is nothing that will be easy about the next few months," Michelle Obama said. "That's why you all are so important."

Myers' poll shows Barack Obama leading likely rival John McCain by nearly 2-to-1 among Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

So why the heavy push? Simple, Myers said, Hispanic voter registration rates and voter participation rates are far lower than those of Anglos and blacks.

In 2004, 58 percent of Hispanics ages 18 and older were registered to vote, 11 percentage points below blacks and 17 points below whites, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

And in the 2006 election in Colorado, a state with a Hispanic population of about 20 percent, only 7 percent turned out to vote, exit polling showed. Low turnouts also were seen in Nevada and Arizona.

Some Hispanic leaders, including Richardson, have said the Obama campaign is not doing enough to court the Hispanic vote.

"He needs to visit more, he needs to campaign more in the West," Richardson said this week. "He needs to put more resources in the West, more volunteers, more offices."

Obama's deputy Latino vote director agreed that the Hispanic outreach effort may have started a little late. READ MORE

By Nancy Mitchell
Rocky Mountain News

Recession drives educated Puerto Ricans to South Florida

AGUAS, Puerto Rico -- As a salesman for a health club in a suburb outside Puerto Rico's capital, Frank Oquendo saw up close how his earnings and the gym's membership base tanked along with Puerto Rico's economy.

Earlier this year, Oquendo's bosses cut his pay by 25 percent as a third of the Caguas club's members canceled their contracts because they were leaving Puerto Rico. After two years of soaring inflation and desperation, Oquendo finally packed up and joined his former clients, moving his family to Miami in July.

He joined thousands of middle-class professionals who have fled Puerto Rico in the past two years, becoming what some people are calling ``FloRicans.''

'Sometimes you feel like a traitor when people ask, `Why don't you stay here and work for your country?' '' said Oquendo, 35. ``How long are we supposed to sacrifice our families for unfulfilled promises? I want to help push Puerto Rico forward, but what about my kids?''

Central and South Florida are increasingly becoming home to members of Puerto Rico's middle class, who are fed up by an island wracked by inflation, unemployment and the perception of crime grown out of control.

The recession that recently struck Florida hit Puerto Rico first. It resulted in masses people moving here as first-time voters in a presidential election year, banking that the Sunshine State would provide new opportunities.

Sociologists say the wave of emigration could rival the 1950s exodus to New York, which helped reshape Manhattan's political and social fabric. This time, the Puerto Ricans leaving the island are highly educated professionals whose departure both provides a safety valve to growing unemployment and threatens the island's skilled workforce.

`COLLECTIVE SUICIDE'

''We are committing collective suicide,'' said Elías Gutiérrez, who runs the graduate school of planning at the University of Puerto Rico. ``This is going to become a country of elderly and poor people.''

Census figures show at least 200,000 of Puerto Rico's 4 million people moved to Florida from 2000 to 2006, including 14,000 to Broward County and about 8,000 to Miami-Dade. About half of Florida's nearly 700,000 Puerto Ricans live in Central Florida, particularly the Orlando area.

But census figures do not reflect the wave that began two years ago, when a budget crisis forced the Puerto Rican government to shut down for several weeks. More than 70,000 people were temporarily furloughed, so it was not long before nurses, doctors and police officers joined the teachers and out-of-work public servants who headed for Florida.

Many of them found jobs before leaving Puerto Rico as recruiters from employers as varied as NASA, Disney World and the Baltimore Police Department went to Puerto Rico to find highly skilled bilingual labor. The shutdown was followed by an unprecedented increase in the sales tax to as high as 7 percent, which hit Puerto Rican wallets hard as a political crisis gripped the U.S. territory.

Then gas prices climbed, and people saw their electric bills reach as high as $1,000 a month. Government statistics show food prices have increased 12 percent this year, and housing 15 percent.

''People in Puerto Rico make around $24,000 a year,'' said Oquendo's wife, Wilma Nieves, 39. ``Day care centers and private schools cost $600 or $700 a month. Our car payment -- for a Suzuki -- was $500 a month. We were falling behind in our mortgage and other loans. You can't just stay behind and complain. You have to find opportunities.''

Nieves, an educational coordinator, has decided to be a stay-at-home mom, and Oquendo just lined up a job with Humana. They live in the Fountainebleau community in West Miami-Dade with their children, ages 7 and 2.

Experts say it's impossible to know exactly how many Puerto Ricans have arrived in Florida in the past two years. But government estimates show some 65,000 are leaving the island each year, said political analyst Luis Davila Colón. READ MORE

BY FRANCES ROBLES
Miami Herald

Are Obama, McCain reaching Hispanic voters?

TAMPA — Juan Velazquez's words made Evelyn Hale cringe.

"I'm going for (John) McCain," said the empanada shop worker of Puerto Rican descent. "I see him more as a leader."

"Not to be racist,'' he added, "but if (Barack) Obama wins, black people are going to want back what was taken from them. . . . A lot of racial things are going to start to happen if Obama wins."

Hale, 28, left frustrated because she thinks Obama's message isn't reaching Hispanics and the Democrats aren't connecting with them as voters.

A Democrat who is half Colombian, Hale started the Hispanic Vision Forum this year with Republican co-founder Angelette Aviles, 32, who is of Puerto Rican descent. It is a nonpartisan effort that the women fund out of their own pockets to encourage Florida Hispanics to realize their political power and vote.

They also use polls, focus groups and articles about Hispanics posted on a blog and Web site to educate the presidential candidates about how to reach the diverse Hispanic community in Florida — from Cubans in Miami, to Puerto Ricans in Orlando to a blend of Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans and South Americans in the Tampa area.

South Florida Cuban-Americans have historically leaned heavily toward Republicans, while Central Florida Hispanics lean Democratic. Still, the women acknowledge that Hispanics tend to vote for the person and the issues, not the party.

Hale and Aviles disagree on politics, but say both candidates have a long way to go to reach a population that could swing the presidential election.

For instance, the media and candidates have been focusing on immigration reform. But the forum's polls show that the economy is the top issue for Hispanic voters, with immigration reform ranking 10th on a list of priorities. Other polls reveal that education tops the list among Hispanic voters.

When asked about immigration in a forum focus group, more than 70 percent of Hispanic voters said that securing the border should be the top priority.

Hale says she's tried to get the word to Obama's campaign about the hesitancy that even some Democratic Hispanics have about him because of lingering tension between blacks and Hispanics involving, among other things, competition over jobs.

"What we're saying to them is that Obama is not flying, he's not connecting with (Hispanics)," she said following a voter registration project at the empanada store in Tampa.

Still, a recent AP-Yahoo News poll found Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 22 percent among Hispanic voters with 26 percent undecided.

Among Hispanics, Hillary Clinton beat Obama by large margins in the Democratic primary. Now, some of her Hispanic supporters are undecided about the general election.

Behind the counter at Amigos One Stop Grocery in Tampa, Mari Martinez said she backed Clinton in the primary. But now she doesn't know who to vote for in November. Revealing how much Hispanic votes can shift between parties, she'd also voted for Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

"Hillary, she went through a lot of stuff and supported her husband 100 percent," said Martinez, originally from Ecuador. "No matter if he was wrong, she protected her guy."

She doesn't know enough about Obama, she says, and doesn't like McCain because she thinks he's too old for the job.

McCain also has a lot of work to do connecting with Hispanics, said Aviles, who is also the area director of the McCain Hispanic Coalition and runs a communications consulting company.

But, she says, the real campaigning has only just started.

Both candidates recently spoke to large national Hispanic leadership groups.

Obama's campaign opened a state headquarters in Ybor City this week, and McCain has satellite offices in Tampa and Orlando.

The women say both candidates need to reach out to Florida's Hispanic communities with personal messages about family, education and the economy, important issues for them. They can't just translate speeches.

Voters want to hear more, too.

"I'm going to talk from a neutral position," said Noel Fernandez, co-owner of Florida Bakery, standing behind a counter of cookies and breads. "Obama will come with change. McCain is the same, the same. But still, I don't know."

The top issue for him is health care, he said. That's why he voted for Hillary Clinton. "She had a good medical plan a long time ago," he said.

Hale said she believes both candidates are trying harder with Hispanics. But sometimes the campaigns reach out to the same people. The Tampa Bay area and the I-4 corridor are a combination of new citizens and Hispanics with decades of roots.

"Tampa Bay has changed a lot in the last 10 years," said Hale, who also heads the Hispanic Alliance of Tampa Bay, which includes 40 organizations.

"If they really want to do a good job, either McCain or Obama, they need to focus and get people in there who truly understand the Hispanic culture," Hale said.

By Saundra Amrhein
St. Pete Times Staff Writer

Winning Hispanic votes will require genuine engagement

Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has reignited an examination of race relations in America. It has led some to question how deep the divide is between black and white Americans. From my perspective, the question ignores the reality of our diverse society. We must also consider the divide between the majority from another group, one that I happen to belong to: Hispanics.
According to the Pew Research Center, Hispanics are the nation’s largest minority group, at 42 million people and 14 percent of the population. By 2050, that population will triple, to 128 million, which will be 29 percent of the American population.

Those numbers already are having a political influence. Just how strong it might be could become clear in November. In a close presidential election, the Hispanic vote could decide the outcome. For example, in the strategic states of New Mexico, Florida and Colorado, Hispanics make up, respectively, 37 percent, 14 percent and 12 percent of eligible voters.

The conventional wisdom is that Hispanics vote Democratic. But it’s not necessarily so. In 1999, according to a Pew Hispanic Center report published in 2007, Democrats enjoyed a 33 percent advantage over Republicans in partisan allegiance among Hispanic registered voters. However, in 2003, a sufficient number of Hispanics voted for Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger (over a respected Hispanic Democrat) to make Schwarzenegger the governor of California. In 2004, President Bush won a historic percentage of the Hispanic vote (more than 40 percent). By 2006, again according to the Pew Hispanic Center, the Democrats’ edge in partisan allegiance had dropped to 21 percent.

Pew’s numbers now show that Hispanic voters are heading back into the Democratic fold, but the message in these voting patterns and in the demographic projections is that neither party can afford to take the Hispanic vote for granted.

The great diversity within the Hispanic population presents a challenge for both parties. Mexican Americans in Texas, Cuban Americans in Florida and Puerto Rican Americans in New York do not agree on every issue. But — while I can’t speak for all Hispanics —I believe there are issues that resonate for us all.

Among them, of course, is immigration. Hispanic support will swing to the political party that has the courage and fortitude to put forward a specific immigration solution that is effective and efficient in securing our borders, that supports the economic interests of the nation and that is compassionate in a way that is consistent with the character of a nation of immigrants.

Beyond immigration, both parties need to forge closer relationships with Hispanic voters. More importantly, they need to embrace policies from the Hispanic point of view.

What is that point of view? For starters, while we wear suits on Wall Street or Main Street, we know the experience — personally or from our parents and grandparents — of working in the fields, on the docks and in the kitchen. We want a job, not a handout. We value opportunity over more government. We are risk takers, willing to bet on ourselves and start a business. We want a society that recognizes and rewards us based on our hard work and ingenuity, not our skin color.

We are unabashedly proud of America, and we are prepared to enlist, fight and die for this country, sometimes even without the right to vote for its leaders. We believe an education represents freedom in America, and we are willing to work multiple jobs so our children can go to college.

Finally, although we know that America strives to be a fair country, the harsh reality is we are not one nation with liberty and justice for all. And yet equal opportunity — to a job, to capital and to credit — is a cornerstone of American success. The promise of equal opportunity is what drew our parents and grandparents and what still draws immigrants to the U.S., and it is what firmly knits them into the country once they are citizens.

As we move to the next phase of the presidential campaign, some people might try to discourage discussion about race relations in favor of issues they say are of greater importance: the war against al-Qaeda, the cost of energy, the subprime mortgage crisis. However, we need leaders who appreciate — and who choose to confront — the crucial elements of racial inequality within these so-called bigger issues. Those are the leaders who are likely to be successful in finding effective solutions to our most important challenges.

I have often said that Hispanics share a common prayer: “Just give me a chance to succeed.” I believe that the candidate who will win Hispanic votes is the one who understands that desire and who will engage the issue of racial equality for Americans of all colors. It’s politically wise. More importantly, it is the right thing to do.

Written by: Alberto R. Gonzales
Former Attorney General of the United States

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voting by Hispanics surged in the last congressional elections, showing strength that could swing this year's presidential vote in closely contested states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. A government report released Tuesday shows that 5.6 million Hispanics voted in the 2006 general election, an increase of 18 percent over 2002, the previous year for a federal election without a presidential race on the ballot. That compares to a 7 percent increase among white voters and a 5 percent increase for black voters.

"For years they called the Latinos the sleeping giant. Well, they woke us up," said Luis Vera, general counsel for the League of United Latin American Citizens, or LULAC. Vera said the debate over illegal immigration has energized Hispanic voters, a trend he expects to continue this year.

The presidential candidates are taking notice. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama both addressed the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials last week and both are scheduled to speak at the LULAC national convention next week.
Hispanics made up only 6 percent of American voters in 2006, according to the report by the Census Bureau. But their numbers are big enough to be decisive in several battleground states, especially in a tight race.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida all have a significant number of Hispanic voters. President Bush narrowly won all four states in 2004, and they could all be hotly contested this year. "When you look at the battleground states, at least four of them are very heavily Hispanic," said Simon Rosenberg, head of a think tank called NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network. "We will see more (campaign) media heaped on Hispanic voters than at any time in American history."

Hispanics, long considered part of the Democratic base, have become swing voters in recent elections. President Bush did well among Hispanic voters in his two presidential victories. But many swung back to the Democrats in 2006, when many Republicans staked out tough positions against illegal immigration. The Democrats regain control of both houses of Congress.

McCain and Obama have both supported comprehensive packages that included an eventual path to citizenship for the estimated 12 million immigrants in the country illegally. McCain, however, now says he would secure the border first.

A recent AP-Yahoo News poll showed that Obama leads McCain among Hispanics, 47 percent to 22 percent with 26 percent undecided.

Still, Obama, who is trying to become the first black president, doesn't have a lock on the Hispanic vote. During the Democratic primary, Hispanics preferred rival Hillary Rodham Clinton to Obama by nearly 2-to-1.

The Census data comes from a national survey which asks 50,000 residents after each federal election whether they were registered to vote and whether they voted. The survey does not ask about candidate preferences or political affiliations. The Associated Press compared voting statistics from the 2006 and 2002 surveys. The 2004 survey was not included because voter turnout in presidential elections is much higher than in the off years.

Voter turnout was up for all racial and ethnic groups in 2006. Overall, 48 percent of voting-age citizens cast a ballot in 2006, the highest percentage in a non-presidential year since 1994, when the Republicans took control of Congress.

Hispanics are the nation's largest and fastest growing minority group, though they have been slow to gain political power nationally because only 60 percent of adult Hispanics are U.S. citizens, according to the Census Bureau. Both political parties, however, see their voting strength growing.

"Just looking at the demographics, whichever party ends up winning the Latino vote will be the majority party in the 21st century," Rosenberg said.

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER

Our position: Central Florida's increasing diversity will add to its richness

There's no question that the Hispanic population in Central Florida is growing and, at the same time, becoming more diverse.

The latest statistics show that Puerto Ricans, U.S. citizens and always the largest Hispanic population in the area, are now being joined by Colombians, Dominicans and Mexicans, among others.

The Hispanic population ranges from 14 percent in Seminole County to 24 percent in Orange to 39 percent in Osceola.

So should Central Florida be concerned about a culture clash?

Hardly. Instead the changes should increase the richness of the area.

There's every reason to believe that our diverse population will assimilate fairly quickly, without anyone having to abandon his or her cultural roots.

A recent think-tank study by the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research found that people who arrived in this country in the past 25 years have assimilated faster than their counterparts of a century ago.

That isn't true for all groups. Mexicans, for example, are making slower progress than others. But the study should help shoot down concerns that Hispanics here aren't assimilating. It's just the opposite.

Look at language -- always the most controversial issue when it comes to diversity -- where true assimilation begins.

In five Orange County schools that offer adult-language programs, enrollment is up from 3,804 to 3,921 in the 2007-08 fiscal year, and that doesn't include a new batch of several hundred summer-school students.

Given the region's diversity, it's critical that Orange and other counties make the teaching of English a priority. Learning the language is the most difficult challenge for the first generation.

Another study, this one by The Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group, tracked the assimilation of Hispanics by generation and found that while only 4 percent of first-generation immigrants spoke primarily English, by the third generation, that number skyrocketed to 78 percent.

And there's little need to fear that Orlando will become like South Florida, where English-only speakers account for 27 percent of the Miami-Dade residents.

Miami presents totally different circumstances than here. It was a gateway for a huge wave of Cuban immigration that allowed those residents to live in enclaves and not have to speak English.

That's not the case in Central Florida. To prosper, you have to speak English. It's the difference between being the person washing dishes in the back of the restaurant and the person managing it up front.

Central Florida is spreading its cultural wings. That's something to celebrate.

Editorial-Sun Sentinel

Central Florida's Hispanic community grows in size, diversity

Aside from Puerto Ricans and Cubans, who have been coming to Florida for decades, the Latino population of Metro Orlando now also includes significant numbers of Mexicans, Colombians, Dominicans and Venezuelans.

During the next 40 years or so, Hispanics are projected to continue growing in the region, the state and the nation.

It's a community that remains in flux. The Hispanic population includes immigrants from Latin America and U.S. citizens born and raised in the U.S. or its territories.

Researchers say that over time, more of them will be born and bred in the United States.

"We have a growing population of what we call 'second-generation Hispanics,' " said Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer with the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington, D.C. "A larger and larger share of the young-adult population is going to be U.S.-born with immigrant parents. While there may be some identity as Mexican-American, Puerto Rican or Cuban-American, the fact that they are growing up here changes everything."

Those Hispanics of the future, Passel said, may by and large prefer to speak English; could have more tenuous connections to their heritage; and will likely continue to spread out beyond urban areas where immigrant communities have historically settled.

The U.S. Census Bureau used to count "Hispanics" or "Latinos" -- both terms are used interchangeably on census forms -- as Mexicans, Cubans and Puerto Ricans while lumping the rest into "other Hispanics." The "other" category has grown steadily as immigrants from other parts of Latin America seek economic opportunity and flee political and social turmoil in their countries of origin.

Puerto Ricans make up about half of the Hispanic population in Orlando, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures. During the past two decades, Mexicans have become the second-largest Hispanic subgroup here. Cubans, now the fifth-largest Hispanic subgroup in Orlando, have been settling in the area since the 1970s but continue to concentrate mostly in South Florida.

Among those in the "other Hispanic" category, tracked by the census since 2000:

*Colombians, many of whom have fled their country's violence, have become the third-largest Hispanic group in Orlando.

*Dominicans, who follow Colombians in population size, have moved here from New York and their Caribbean nation in search of a middle-class lifestyle.

*Venezuelans have increasingly found their way to Orlando, in many cases seeking asylum after their country's Socialist President Hugo Ch�vez took power in 1999.

*Although smaller in numbers, thousands of Hondurans and Ecuadoreans also have settled in Orlando.

While Latino immigration -- particularly from Mexico and Central America -- has been the subject of much controversy and public-policy debate over those in the country illegally, some say the increase in Hispanics is not unlike the flow of previous generations of immigrants that made the U.S. the racially and ethnically diverse nation it is today.

"This country has been shaped by diversity," said Jos� Maunez Cuadra, director of the Latin American, Caribbean and Latino Studies Program at the University of Central Florida. "These diverse groups we see here now will at some point meld with the rest of the population, making way for other new groups to grow."

By: Victor Manuel Ramos Sentinel Staff Writer

Hispanics: Fastest Growing Group

Hispanics continue to be the state's and the nation's fastest growing population group, according to new federal census figures.

As such, they are wielding increasing political influence, locally and nationally, said those who study population trends.

"There is always political power in numbers, and as their numbers increase, the Hispanic population becomes much more of a critical mass of influence in all political quarters," said Timothy W. Brennan, executive director of the Pioneer Valley Planning Commission.....

...."Hispanics will certainly be a very important group going forward," said Raymond J. La Raja, assistant professor of political science at University of Massachusetts in Amherst.

"It's a very young population and as they get older, they will vote more often, so they will be a formidable force in politicc. Clearly, the nation is diversifying," Brennan said. "And the more diversified we are, the stronger we are at being able to engage and compete in a global marketplace." READ MORE

By STAN FREEMAN - The Republican Newsroom

You Say Hispanic, I Say Latino

When we report "Hispanics" or "Latinos," who are we really talking about? Roberto Suro, for one, thinks journalists may not have a clear idea.  Suro, a professor at the University of Southern California and former director of the Pew Hispanic Center, says the first and foremost, remember the characteristic about this population: It is diverse, dispersed, and growing and changing all the same time.  

About 12 percent of the U.S. population now marks "Hispanic" on the Census forms. But journalists shouldn't assume these folks share the same background, confort with the Spanish language or even connection with their native countries, Suro says.  Los Angeles has a strong Mexican-American presence, while Miami has a long heritage tracing back to Cuba.  New York is home to many Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and a fast-growing population of Mexicans.  As many as one-quarter of immigrants have little connection to their ancestor land, with their time in the United States, age of arrival and native country all influencing this pattern. 

It helps to think about Hispanics by generation, Suro suggests.  Consider language. Not surprisingly, first generation Hispanics are most comfortable conversing in Spanish.  But for the third generation. English by far is the language of choice. About half of the second-generation Hispanics - the group poised to become the fastest-growing segment of the population - are bilingual.  

To highlight the distinctions among these groups, Suro pointed to a few results from a Pew Hispanic Center opinion poll of nearly 3,000 Hispanics.  More than half of Spanish speakers agreed that "it doesn't do any good to plan for the future because your don't have control over it."  But only one-third of bilingual and one-quarter of English speakers agreed.  About 95% of Spanish speakers thought that children should live with their parents until marriage; but a little over half of English speakers felt that way.  Just 16% of Spanish-dominant speakers in the survey said that sex between two adults of the same sex was acceptable, while 27% of bilingual and 38% of English-dominant Hispanics agreed.  

It's often our habit to lump "Hispanics" in one group when reporting about health, politics, or any other subject.  Our sources often do the same thing.  Suro's data forces us to think twice and ask a few more questions.  As he emphasized, "it's dangerous to generalize."

By: Sally Lehrman

Source: Poynter Online