McCain, in Orlando, will have to work for Hispanic vote

Republican presidential candidate John McCain is in town today to court black voters at the National Urban League convention.

He'll also try to show some love to Central Florida's Hispanics, the region's fastest-growing voting bloc.

Since 1990, their numbers have quadrupled to about 650,000, according to Democracia USA, a nonpartisan Hispanic voter-registration organization. Their voting population stands at 234,000 -- one in every eight registered voters. And unlike Hispanics in other states, who tend to be Democrats, Central Florida's aren't single-minded:

*44 percent are registered Democrats.

*22 percent are Republicans.

*34 percent are unaffiliated.

In the past two presidential elections, Hispanic voters here backed Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry. But they backed Republicans Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist in the last two gubernatorial elections.

So McCain has something to build on -- which is why he has scheduled a meeting with Puerto Rican voters today at Pancho's Spanish Bakery & Deli in east Orlando.

But he's also got a ways to go.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Florida's Hispanic voters favor Democrat Barack Obama, 56 percent to McCain's 36 percent. And a recent national poll of Hispanics shows McCain trailing by almost 3-1 -- 23 percent to Obama's 66 percent.

The Pew Hispanic Center poll showed Obama leading among all Hispanic groups. His edge is especially pronounced among Puerto Ricans, who make up about half of Central Florida's Hispanic population.


Policy shift proves costly

Two years ago, McCain brokered an immigration-reform bill that was applauded by many Hispanics. But after the measure failed, he took a harder line during the Republican primary. That shift has mollified some of the GOP base, but it has cost him support among Hispanics.

Asked whom they trusted to handle immigration issues, 59 percent of Hispanics in the Pew poll said Obama. Nineteen percent chose McCain.

"There was a lot of talk in 2004 that Latinos might be becoming more Republican," said Mark Lopez, the Pew Center's associate director. "But we've noticed them leaning much more Democrat."

McCain may be able to buck that trend in Central Florida, but he'll have to do more than simply soften his tone on immigration, said Democracia USA President Jorge Mursuli.

"He's going to have to take a very aggressive stand," against what Mursuli describes as "plain old racism and bigotry" from some immigration hard-liners. "The fact that he hasn't done that yet has hurt him."

Mursuli said McCain also needs to ramp up his contact with Hispanic voters, adding they need a "metaphoric hug" before "they'll listen to your policies." His session today at Pancho's Bakery will be his first meeting with Central Florida Hispanics since Florida's GOP primary on Jan. 29.

The state's Hispanics form a voting bloc coveted by both campaigns.

As a group, they lean Democratic in presidential elections -- with the exception of South Florida Cubans -- and Democrats have launched a $20 million campaign to maintain that edge locally and nationally.

McCain has his own Hispanic-outreach network and has aired several Spanish-language ads. In Orange County, the local GOP paid the registration fee for some Hispanics to get on the ballot.


Moves might be too little

Despite that, Bill Negron, a member of McCain's Central Florida Hispanic Steering Committee, said he doesn't think McCain will win the Hispanic vote. Instead, he said, the Arizona senator must limit Obama's advantage if he expects to carry Florida.

"I think we can be in the high 30s or low 40s," said Negron, an Orlando mortgage broker. "That's realistic."

Negron is worried, however, that the campaign has some catching up to do in Central Florida. So far, he said, the Obama team has "been better at getting their message out."

Still, it's not clear how effective that message has been.

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Obama up 2 points statewide over McCain among all voters -- but trailing by 10 points in the Orlando area, despite his big lead among Hispanics. East Orlando resident Maritza Gonzalez supports the Illinois senator, but only reluctantly.

A Hillary Clinton supporter, she thinks McCain "is more interested in war, and I don't want the war to continue."

But, she added, "To tell the truth, I don't like either candidate. But if I have to choose, it's going to be Obama . . .; it sounds like he wants to make things better."

Gonzalez, a part-time Wal-Mart cashier, seems much like many voters at this point in the campaign. She's paid scant attention to the daily political chatter. What she's really worried about are things that concern voters of every demographic: her husband's job security -- his airline is laying people off -- and their looming mortgage, car and utility payments.

Jim Stratton
Orlando Sentinel