State May Be Getting A Touch Blue

TAMPA - Is Florida turning blue? Or just slightly bluish? Or even just a less reddish shade of purple?

Florida Democrats contend voter registration figures and recent election results show signs of a shift in the politics of a state dominated for more than a decade by Republicans.

The signs aren't overwhelming - a small but significant uptick in numbers of Democratic voters; a partisan shift in Hispanic voter registration; urban counties including Pinellas turning somewhat more Democratic.

But in a state with a Republican governor and big GOP majorities in the state House, state Senate, elected Cabinet and congressional delegation, any success for Democrats stands out. Those signals are being heard more loudly after the 2006 election, when Democrats made electoral gains in Florida for the first time in more than a decade.

"There could be a strong tide," is the optimistic view of Mark Bubriski, a former spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party who is working for the Barack Obama campaign. "But it's the type of change that doesn't happen overnight."

Baloney, respond the Republicans.

Republicans dominate government in Florida even though they have long trailed Democrats in numbers of registered voters, said state party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle. She noted that Gov. Charlie Crist won in 2006 by 400,000 votes, even though Republicans had 400,000 fewer voters on the rolls than Democrats. "All that matters is what happens on Election Day, and we've shown time and again that Republicans turn out voters at the polls, even when we're down in registration numbers."

University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, an expert on demographic trends in politics, thinks the changes are real - "an example of the cyclical nature of politics," she said. MacManus said the change in registration figures comes partly from younger voters, who are becoming more likely to register Democratic and less likely to register no-party or in minor parties.

"Some of it's driven by the excitement of the primary - the Obama-Hillary race has sped up that process," she said. MacManus said the changes aren't big enough to mean Democrats are sure to win Florida in 2008, "but at least show a party that's on the upswing, not the downswing."

Reagan, Retirees Drove GOP Gains

For Florida Democrats, any glimmer of hope would be welcome. For more than a decade, they've predicted and hoped for a resurgence in every Florida election, only to see Republicans make gains. At one time, Florida was part of the Democratic-dominated Solid South. As late as the mid-1960s, there were four registered Democrats in Florida for every Republican.

GOP-oriented Midwestern retirees and the popularity of Ronald Reagan erased that advantage in the 1970s and '80s. In 1994, Democrats slipped below 50 percent of registered Florida voters, although they remain Florida's largest party. Between 1994 and 1998, Republicans won their first state Legislature majorities in modern history, then their first majority in the state's elected Cabinet, along with the governor's mansion, taking control of state government. They used that power to redraw legislative and congressional district lines to their advantage. With the favorable districts, they reached majorities of about 2-1 in the Legislature and Florida's congressional delegation early in this decade.

For Democrats, it has been an era of unrelieved gloom. The party couldn't raise money or recruit candidates. In 2002, there were more Libertarians than Democrats on the ballot for state House seats. No Democratic presidential candidate has received Florida's electoral votes since 1996, and in three straight elections - 2000, 2002 and 2004 - only one Democrat, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, managed to win a statewide race.

That era is ending, Democrats say. In 2006, the party made its first electoral gains, small but significant, since 1994. For the first time since 1998, a Democratic candidate who didn't already hold a statewide office won one when Alex Sink of Tampa became state chief financial officer. Democrats also took seven previously Republican state House seats, then added two more in special elections afterward; and won two previously Republican congressional seats. They now hold 14 of the 26 state Senate seats, 43 of 120 state House seats, and nine of the 25 congressional seats. Bad as those numbers are for the Democrats, they are still an improvement.

Democrats Add Voters To Rolls

Meanwhile, voter figures have shown signs of Democratic movement since 2006. For more than a decade, both major parties have declined gradually but steadily in their share of the electorate, as more voters registered no-party or in minor parties. Since the 2006 general election, while Republicans continued that decline, Democrats registered an uptick, from 40.4 percent to 41.2 percent - the first time since at least 1994 that either party hasn't declined in its percentage of total registered voters. As of the end of May, the most recent figures available on the state Division of Elections' Web site, 41.2 percent of Florida voters are Democrats, 37.2 percent are Republicans and 21.6 percent are minor party or no-party.

Steve Schale, a former state Democratic Party strategist who now works for the Obama campaign in Florida, listed other signs:

•In the two years the state has been keeping separate figures on Hispanic voters, Democrats have come from behind to lead Republicans, with 35.5 percent of the state's 1.18 million Hispanic voters, to 35.2 percent. Hispanics are the nation's and Florida's fastest-growing ethnic group.

•The percentage of Democrats is increasing in most of the state's large, urban counties. Democrats recently surpassed Republicans for the first time in Pinellas County, the birthplace of Florida's Republican Party.

•Out of Florida's 120 state House districts, 77 have become more Democratic since 2002, Schale said.

This year, with an unpopular Republican president leaving office, "Our brand is looking better than theirs," he said.

Changes May Be Misleading, GOP Says

Again, Republicans questioned the significance of such figures. Small changes in voter figures can be misleading, they noted, because of purges, when county officials remove inactive voters from the rolls. Registration figures can also be questionable because of Florida's closed primaries, in which only voters registered in a party can participate. Voters often register in a party they don't agree with, simply to be able to vote in the primary.

That has long been the case in North Florida, for example, where Democrats dominate in registered voters, but almost never win statewide or presidential elections.

MacManus agreed that the changes are too small to allow predictions of Democratic wins in Florida in 2008, but she said they could have a long-term effect, particularly if the young people registering Democratic because of Obama see their candidate win. "The first time somebody votes, if their candidate does well, they're likely to stay with that party for a long time," she said.

By WILLIAM MARCH
The Tampa Tribune