Immigration Not the Only Issue That’s Key to Latino Vote

Immigration is a hot topic on the talk-show circuit as prognosticators try to predict how the presumptive presidential nominees, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain , will fare among Latinos. But experts say that despite the importance Hispanic voters place on immigration, they remain more likely to be swayed by the candidates’ positions on a series of issues that have little to do with border fences and pathways to citizenship.

In part, that is because McCain and Obama both have supported a three-pronged approach to overhauling the nation’s immigration laws that would enhance border security, rewrite temporary-worker programs and create a route to citizenship for the roughly 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the country.

McCain, an Arizona senator, wrote immigration bills with Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, in 2006 and 2007, and Obama, of Illinois, was part of the larger group of senators who worked on the agreement.

McCain has been criticized by Democrats for saying during the GOP primary that he would have voted against the 2007 bill in its final form and for shifting his emphasis to the border-control elements of the legislation. Obama has come under fire for backing a “poison pill” amendment, adopted by one vote, that helped scuttle the bill.

But even if their positions on immigration were not similar, experts say there is reason to believe most Hispanic votes will hinge on how the candidates present themselves on the economy, education, health care, crime, taxes and national security.

Latino voters will be closely watched in a cluster of southwestern states -- Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico -- that President George W. Bush narrowly won in 2004, as well as in Florida and in a handful of swing states where less attention has been paid to growing Hispanic communities. The candidates’ dexterity in navigating the political nuances of courting Latino voters -- who have origins in a diverse set of nations and whose roots in this country range from one generation to many generations -- could determine how well they do in those states.

In a 2007 Pew Hispanic Center survey, immigration was deemed to be “very important” or “extremely important” by 79 percent of respondents, ranking it fifth among the issues tested. Education, health care, the economy and jobs, and crime rated higher, and the Iraq War finished behind immigration with 70 percent of respondents calling it very important or extremely important.

“When we think about Hispanic voters as opposed to the Hispanic community, Hispanic voters are all U.S. citizens and many of them are native born. So it’s not surprising that immigration is not one of the top issues for Hispanics,” said Susan Minushkin, deputy director of the Pew Hispanic Center. “The issues that you would expect to see important for a group of voters that tends to be younger than the population as a whole and is more likely to have children under the age of 18 living in their household.”

Democrats believe that all augurs well for Obama, who has adopted the slogan “si se puede” -- or “yes, we can” -- from the United Farm Workers, a heavily Hispanic labor union. “The Latino community is going to vote their self-interest and they’re going to vote their future and when they do that I think that it will be overwhelmingly for Barack Obama ,” said Rep. Raul M. Grijalva, D-Ariz.

Obama spoke about educational opportunities at a recent candidate forum held by the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, saying “it is so important for us to make sure that every child in America is getting the education that will ultimately make us all stronger and improve our economy.”

The vital question is whether Obama’s expected edge among Hispanic voters will, indeed, be “overwhelming.” National exit polling from 2004 showed John Kerry winning Latino voters 53 percent to 44 percent, but some experts have questioned the methodology and accuracy of those surveys, suggesting that Kerry probably did better.

McCain has been elected four times from a state in which nearly one-third of the population is of Hispanic origin and which abuts Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

On Wednesday, he released a Spanish-language radio ad slated to run in New Mexico and Nevada that features his Naval Academy roommate, Frank Gamboa. “He has earned the trust of Latinos and has a history of supporting us,” Gamboa says in Spanish. “So when it comes to our values and understanding Latinos this election, I know for John it’s not political; it comes from the heart.”

The ad underscores areas where McCain thinks he can appeal to Latino voters, including his military background and on social conservatism. “He shares our same conservative values and faith in God,” Gamboa says in a pitch that comes on the heels of a McCain trip to Latin American countries.

By Jonathan Allen and Andrew Satter
CQ Politics Staff