Race may hinge on Latinos

Four years ago, President Bush received strong support from voters who traditionally favor the Democratic Party in large numbers. About 40 percent of Latinos voted for Bush in 2004, helping him win re-election over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

John McCain is hoping a similar turnout will help propel him to victory in the November presidential election. On Cinco de Mayo, the Arizona senator unveiled a Spanish Web site as part of a broader strategy to court Latino voters.

McCain has put out Internet ads highlighting his record of military service and his plan to help small businesses flourish during times of economic distress. McCain also will attend the National Council of La Raza's annual convention in San Diego on July 14.

While the Spanish-language outreach isn't unprecedented, it shows the growing importance of the Latino vote in national politics. Latinos loom as a potential swing vote in the 2008 presidential race because of where they are found on the Electoral College map, according to a recent report by the Pew Hispanic Center.

They comprise a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that Bush carried by margins of 5 percentage points or fewer in 2004. The four states - New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado - will be closely contested in this year's race, the report says.

McCain's record in support of comprehensive immigration reform will help him with Latinovoters, some analysts say. "A lot of Latinos regard Republicans as hostile to Latinos and immigrants," said Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney. "They don't have that perception of McCain."

In a close election, the Latino vote could be "decisive" in key states such as New Mexico and Colorado, Pitney said. "If McCain does well among Latinos," Pitney said, "he could hold New Mexico and Colorado in the Republican column."

Despite his earlier support of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, some analysts argue that McCain's recent hard-line stance against illegal immigration will hurt him with Latinos.

"It's not whether you speak Spanish or put up a Web site in Spanish. It's what positions you take on issues," said Elsa Valdez, a sociology professor at Cal State San Bernardino. "Once the campaign started heating up, he started taking a punitive and harsh position to appeal to conservative Republicans. I think that's going to hurt him in a major way."

Carlos Rodriguez, a 36-year-old Victorville resident who works for the building industry, was a volunteer organizer for Bush's campaigns in 2000 and 2004. He is helping to mobilize Latino support for McCain in this year's race. "Senator McCain's efforts to reach out to the Hispanic community are imperative in light of the growing Hispanic population," Rodriguez said.

Latinos share many of the same concerns as voters in general about home foreclosures and rising gas and food prices, Rodriguez said. "Hispanics care about good schools and having a home and keeping more of their money so they can take care of their families," Rodriguez said. "Senator McCain's plan is to empower families as opposed to the Democrats' plan of higher taxes in the midst of this economic recession."

But Gabriel Ramirez, a 33-year-old Redlands resident, said that most Latinos will support the Democratic nominee, regardless of whether it's Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

"I've been a Republican since day one, but I don't agree with the policies that McCain is going to bring to the table," said Ramirez, Inland Empire chairman for the California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce. "Unfortunately, I think it's going to bring us more hardship economically down the road. I think he's going to focus all of his energy on the Middle East and forget about what's happening at home."

By: Stephen Wall - The Sun