Differences between presidential candidates make it hard to predict Hispanic vote

After countless primaries and caucuses, political pundits have some clear indications on how some voters will cast their ballots in November's presidential election if Barack Obama is the Democratic Party candidate and John McCain the Republican.

It is a given that Sen. Obama will get more than 90 percent of the African-American vote. He will be the preferred candidate of the overwhelming majority of white, college-educated voters and those who earn over $100,000 a year. And he will have a hard time getting the vote of white, blue-collar Americans who earn less than $50,000 a year.

Sen. McCain will easily get the vote of those who consider national security the top issue in the campaign and those who don't believe the Illinois senator has enough experience to be commander-in-chief. He has a good chance of attracting many of the white blue-collar Americans who for one reason or another will not vote for Obama. And he will garner an unenthusiastic but nevertheless large number of conservative voters, who even if they don't trust him don't have anywhere else to go.

What so far baffles most pundits is who will get the Hispanic vote. If the Democratic Party candidate had been Sen. Hillary Clinton, she would have been a good bet to win the Hispanic vote by more than a 2-1 margin. There are doubts that Obama can match her numbers, particularly in inner cities where poor black people and poor Hispanics have to battle for the same jobs and often see gangs of each group fight for control of their neighborhood.

Thus in an Obama-McCain race, the Hispanic voter will be harder to determine. Other issues must be considered. Many questions for both parties and candidates remain unanswered, as both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have made so many deplorable choices that make it difficult to say who Hispanics will prefer in November.

Many Republicans in Congress have voiced loudly their opposition to any comprehensive immigration reform bill. Even Sen. McCain has shied away from his early leadership on this issue. He now wants the southern border secured first, before he will even consider any other immigration measures.

Hispanics, particularly Mexican-Americans and Central Americans, are likely to vote for the more immigration-friendly policy of the Democratic candidate. Yet, the question remains, will they remember that McCain has always been a champion of their cause?

These same groups will not be happy with recent Democratic Party decisions in Congress. They will resent all the verbal abuse Mexico took during the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries and the pledge by both Democratic Party candidates that they will force Mexico, Canada and Central America to renegotiate the free trade agreements already approved and that are in effect. In particular, the North American Free Trade Agreement was approved more than 15 years ago.

Nor will Colombian-Americans, who primarily live in South Florida and New York, applaud the decision by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to refuse even to consider a free trade agreement with Colombia, this country's best ally in the Western Hemisphere.

As if all of this were not enough, Democrats are refusing to fund a $500 million program to help Mexico fight an increasingly violent war on drugs. Democrats believe less than $200 million will suffice to help Mexico's President Felipe Calderón fight the drug cartels that bring their deadly cargo with impunity to the United States. The AFL-CIO is opposed to any assistance. They are concerned about human rights abuses.

Cuba is still the hot-button issue for many Cuban-Americans. And despite an increase in the registration of Hispanics as Democrats in Florida, the Cuban-American vote will go for McCain.

Of course, none of the above will make much difference if Hispanics vote on the state of the economy, the price of oil and food, or the war in Iraq. All these issues should make this an easy year for Democratic candidates, particularly the one running for president.

But, as with all other groups, segregated and analyzed under a microscope by political scientists, journalists and pundits, all of us have a particular issue that will make us vote one way or the other on Election Day. That is what makes the Hispanic vote so difficult to predict.

By: Guillermo I. Martínez (Columnist/Sun-Sentinel)